In July of last year, the Astros selected a high school position player in the first round for the first time since 2015. While drafting high school prospects can be seen as more risky, the early returns on Astros 2025 first-rounder Xavier Neyens have been very encouraging.
The first five games were a bit of a struggle for the 19-year-old, as he went 2-for-18 with 12 strikeouts. But that stretch feels like a long time ago based on how he’s performed since.
Scouting Snapshot: Xavier Neyens
- Power: Plus-plus raw power with elite exit velocity data
- Approach: Extremely selective hitter with low swing rate
- Plate discipline: Advanced walk rates, not very aggressive
- Profile: Left-handed power bat with middle-of-the-order upside
In the 17 games since, Neyens is hitting .333 with a team-leading six home runs, 16 RBIs, and a ridiculous 203 wRC+. He’s also drawing walks at a 21.8% clip, and despite a 29.5% strikeout rate, he has a low swinging-strike percentage. As a matter of fact, he’s only swinging at 31.5% of the pitches he sees.
But when he does swing, he does serious damage. His first home run of the season, hit on April 11, came off the bat at 116 mph. That is absolutely insane. He’s been comped to Austin Riley, so I looked at Riley’s exit velocities for comparison. His career-high in an MLB game is 116.1 mph.
Neyens’ 90th percentile exit velocity is 108.4 mph. That figure essentially represents the type of power a hitter is capable of producing consistently. According to Baseball America, his 95+ mph hard-hit rate is a ridiculous 70.3%, easily the highest on BA’s recent list of prospects with impressive EVs.
Just to illustrate his approach, I want to highlight a game a few days ago. Earlier this week, Neyens had a game where he went 0-for-1 with three walks. He saw 17 pitches and swung just once, which resulted in a groundout. Neyens has a very patient, disciplined approach at the plate. As his swing decisions continue to progress, the damage could become more frequent with an increase on in-zone swings.
It’s still early for Neyens, but his performance so far reinforces the scouting report we saw at the draft which noted elite power, patient approach but some potential swing and miss.
If the contact gains continue to come, Neyens has the kind of power profile that could quickly push him into top-prospect conversations. All in all, it’s a strong start for Neyens and something Astros fans should be very excited about.
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