In the 2021 MLB Draft, the Astros selected a right-hander in the sixth round and signed him for more than $100,000 under slot value. That pitcher, Spencer Arrighetti, quickly outperformed his draft position, climbing through the minor league ranks and earning Astros Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors in 2023.
Arrighetti made his debut in 2024 and while he got off to a rough start, he dominated down the stretch posting a 3.08 ERA over his final 14 outings including a ridiculous August where he had 1.95 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 32.1 innings, earning him AL Rookie of the Month.
After his late-season surge, he looked poised for a breakout 2025 campaign. He opened the year strong, allowing just one run over six innings in his first start. He made one additional start in April before suffering a freak injury as he was struck by a line drive during batting practice, fracturing his right thumb.
The injury sidelined him until August, when he returned to make five starts. In three of those outings, he allowed two runs or fewer, showing flashes of the form that had generated so much optimism entering the season. However, his year was cut short once again when he was shut down in September due to elbow inflammation.
A deeper dive into his numbers, particularly the larger sample from 2024, suggests a starter with real upside still untapped. That season, Arrighetti’s curveball emerged as an elite weapon, holding opponents to just a .171 batting average against with an even better .155 expected batting average. The pitch consistently generated weak contact and put hitters on the defensive.
His cutter also proved highly effective, finishing with a run value of +5, the best mark among his pitch mix. With two legitimate weapons already producing strong underlying results, the foundation is there for Arrighetti to take a meaningful step forward.
Overall in 2024, Arrighetti generated a 27.7% whiff rate, well above the league average of roughly 25%. His 12.2% swinging-strike rate was equally impressive, and notably higher than Hunter Brown’s 11.3% mark in 2025. The bat-missing ability is real, and it’s backed by a meaningful sample size.
Even in his limited action in 2025, the underlying metrics remained strong. His fastball posted a 107 Stuff+ rating, which would have ranked sixth among qualified pitchers in 2025. His curveball was even more dominant, earning a 118 Stuff+, a figure that would have ranked third in baseball, tied with Paul Skenes.
The bottom line: Arrighetti has the raw stuff to dominate at the big league level. The swing-and-miss profile, the quality of his secondary pitches, and the advanced metrics all point to a pitcher whose ceiling is higher than many realize.
After a frustrating 2025 season cut short by injuries, Arrighetti reflected on his mindset: “I don’t think I have anything to prove to myself, necessarily,” Arrighetti said. “I think that if I didn’t fully believe that I belonged here and if I didn’t have the village of people that I have in my life who have supported me all along and if I didn’t have the assurance I have from the Lord then I would’ve never been here to being with.”
He understands there will be competition for a rotation spot, but he believes that competition can bring out the best in players, himself included.
“It’s about the opportunity to compete and fight for the role that I work every day to fill on this team and seize the opportunity to use my story to glorify the Lord who gave me the ability to do just that,” Arrighetti said.
He may not feel the need to prove himself, but his words show his focus on daily effort.
“I think if I have anything to prove, it’s to prove that I am capable of being consistent in my process, consistent in my work ethic, and consistent in the way I show up for the other 25 guys on the team,” Arrighetti said. “More importantly, I owe it to my creator in heaven to use the gifts he’s given me to the best of my ability both on and off the field.”
Even in the midst of setbacks, Arrighetti keeps perspective and gratitude close. “I believe I owe it to the people who pour their efforts into me daily to pour back into them equally,” he said. “And to use my platform and position to give thanks to them and to the Lord for allowing me to be here.”
The talent has never been the question. Now healthy, motivated, and armed with elite swing-and-miss stuff, Arrighetti enters 2026 with everything in place. Don’t be surprised if this is the season the rest of the league finally takes notice.
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