It’s been a few years since the Astros had a prospect the caliber of Cam Smith in the system. Following the trade of Kyle Tucker this off-season, Smith immediately became the Astros top prospect and has performed like so in his limited time in an Astros uniform.
Originally a first round pick of the Cubs (#14 overall) in 2024, Smith was a standout at Florida State showing off an advanced approach that led to him hitting .387 with 16 homers his junior year after a monster Cape Cod league where he hit .347 with a .981 OPS in 44 games. Following the draft, Smith played in 32 games and hit .313 with 7 home runs and 24 runs batted in, making his way up to Double-A. Smith played in 15 games this Spring Training and put up some gaudy numbers hitting .342 with a team leading 4 home runs, 11 runs batted in and a 1.130 OPS.
With the Astros finalizing their Opening Day roster, there has been a lot of speculation on if Cam Smith will make the cut? It would be pretty unprecedented for a prospect to make an Opening Day roster after just 32 minor league games. Below are reasons for and against him making the cut.
Case For:
Necessity – Smith has spent his entire career as an infielder, and was drafted as a third baseman, but this spring the Astros made the decision to move him to right field. This shift was largely driven by the underperformance of the team’s outfielders and the lack of promising, above-average talent in that area. While right field is a new position for Smith, he’s a versatile and athletic player, and he has shown an ability to adapt quickly in the limited opportunities he’s had so far. His strong work ethic and natural athleticism have allowed him to look comfortable in the outfield, despite the relatively short time he’s spent there. Given the Astros’ pressing need for improvement in the outfield, Smith stands out as their best option, even with his limited experience at the position. His adaptability and potential could make him a key asset for the team moving forward.
Talent – Smith’s talent is undeniable, which is why he was a standout at Florida State, a first-round pick by the Cubs, and highly sought after by the Astros in trade talks surrounding Kyle Tucker. This spring, he’s proven his ability, hitting 4 home runs in just 15 games and showcasing his power to all fields. His raw skill level places him near the top of the Astros’ roster in terms of natural talent. With his blend of power, athleticism, and versatility, it’s clear that he has the potential to make an immediate impact. Though some teams have been criticized for “rushing” prospects, many have successfully fast-tracked players who were ready to contribute at the big league level. Given Smith’s track record of success in the minors and his performance this spring, there’s a strong case to be made for him being ready for a prominent role sooner rather than later.
Power – I get it—hitting is hitting. The goal is to get on base, score runs, and make an impact with the bat. But with the potential loss of key players like Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, the Astros might need to find a way to inject more power into their lineup, especially in the outfield. Smith stands out as the best hitting prospect in the minors by far, and there’s a real chance he could develop even more power as he matures. Even veteran players like Mauricio Dubon have been singing Smith’s praises, suggesting he could become the next big power hitter, with the potential for 60 home runs. Adding a legitimate power bat like Smith to the lineup could do wonders for the Astros’ offense, especially by bolstering the bottom half of the order. His ability to provide consistent pop in the middle or lower parts of the lineup would not only add depth but also make the team much more dangerous offensively.
Case Against:
Limited Games – As mentioned, Smith has played in just 32 minor league games, with only five of those coming in Double-A. In those five games, he went 5-for-19 with 3 strikeouts. Given the small sample size, it’s hard to draw any significant conclusions—nothing particularly good or bad can be inferred from that brief stretch. For example, one of the Astros’ prospects last season had a strong start following the draft, but then struggled, hitting just .198 with 33 strikeouts in his next 22 games. While some teams have found success by moving prospects up quickly, many others have seen their young players fail after a fast track to the majors. Every player is different, and while Smith’s talent is clear, rushing him could have long-term consequences. Ultimately, you don’t want his development to be hindered by facing pitching he’s not fully ready for.
Development – As mentioned, Smith’s exposure to major league pitching has been very limited. Given that, getting more opportunities in the minors to face some of the top prospects in Double-A and Triple-A could be incredibly valuable for his long-term development. While his performance this Spring Training has been promising, it’s still a small sample. With just 38 at-bats, that equates to maybe 10 games for a full-time player—roughly 5-6% of a typical minor league season. Moreover, Baseball Reference gives him an opponent quality rating of 6.8, which places him just below the level of Double-A pitching. This suggests that while he’s been facing decent competition, it’s not quite on par with the level of pitching he would regularly encounter in the upper minors or major leagues. These factors highlight the importance of continued development in the minors, where he can refine his skills and adjust to tougher pitching before being thrust into a larger role with the Astros.
Chas McCormick – The logical position he would fill would be Chas McCormick’s spot in right field. McCormick is interesting because he had a solid 2022 season before breaking out in 2023 when he hit .273 with 22 home runs, 70 runs batted in and 19 stolen bases, compiling 3.6 WAR. In 2024, McCormick got off to a really rough start in April before missing about 20 games due to a back injury. He came back in May and the struggles continued. He was eventually optioned to Sugar Land in August for a few games before coming back up in September, where he finally showed some signs of life hitting .391 over 7 games. Unfortunately, he fractured his hand after running into a wall ending his season. He posted a 117 OPS+ in 342 games through his first season with a career best in 2023. Then had a disastrous 2024 season. Maybe McCormick deserves another chance at keeping the right field spot.
Overall Thoughts:
The Astros clearly have more information on all of this than anyone else, and I think they will make the best decision that benefits Smith long-term. If that is on the Opening Day roster, then so be it. As a “prospect guy”, seeing him get a few months in the minors would be a lot of fun, just as watching him hit homers in an Astros uniform will be. What do you think the Astros will do with Smith?
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