The Astros have been at the forefront of player development for quite some time. This is especially true on the pitching side of things, where the Astros tend to be homegrown more than any other position on the field.
One of the pitchers they drafted and developed has turned into an absolute ace. That is right-hander Hunter Brown. While he isn’t a free agent until 2029, it’s never too early to start looking at what it could cost for the Astros to extend him. For reference, the Astros quickly extended Cristian Javier after his first three years in the bigs.
One of the most common things that comes up when Brown extension talks take place, is his agent Scott Boras. While Boras is known to push for big deals and has done very well doing that, he has also worked out some pre free agency deals with Astros in the past like Jose Altuve and Lance McCullers Jr.
Hunter Brown made his big league debut in 2022 with his first full season coming in 2023 where he posted a 5.09 ERA. In 2024, after a rough April, Brown turned it around posting a 3.49 ERA with 179 K in 170 innings. So far in ten starts in 2025, Brown has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 2.04 ERA.
To get a good feel for what an extension looks like for Hunter Brown, let’s look at some of the contracts given out over the last few years.
The most recent example of a top pitcher getting an extension from his current team (not a free agent signing) is right-hander Logan Webb. Webb signed an extension after two really good seasons where he posted ERAs of 3.03 and 2.90. In 2022, his final year before the extension, Webb finished 11th in the NL Cy Young voting. His extension was a 5 year, $90 million deal and is looking like an absolute steal.
Another signing in 2023, Pablo Lopez of the Twins received a nice extension. While he wasn’t homegrown, he was still under team control. The Twins picked him up in a deal that sent Arraez out of town. Lopez has a 3.96 ERA with Miami and was coming off a 2022 season where he had a 3.75 ERA over 30 starts. He signed a 4 year, $73.5 million extension with the Twins.
The next example might be one of the best comparisons. In October of 2022, the Braves signed right-hander Spencer Strider to an extension following his first full-season where he posted a 2.67 ERA with 202 strikeouts in 131.2 innings. This was a super quick signing but his extension was 6 years, $75 million with a team option too.
As mentioned earlier, the Astros have a sample extension we can look at too. In February of 2023, the Astros signed Cristian Javier to an extension following a 2022 season where he posted a 2.54 ERA with 194 strikeouts in 148.2 innings, including a 0.71 ERA in the playoffs. Javier’s extension was 5 years, $64 million.
Going back another year, we have Joe Musgrove as an extension candidate. Musgrove wasn’t homegrown in San Diego, but was still under team control when he signed his extension. After a really strong 2021 with the Padres, Musgrove was extended in 2022 during a season where he posted a 2.93 ERA. Musgrove was 29-years-old at the time and signed for 5 years, $100 million.
While different front offices and different general managers, the Astros have another extension we can look at. Despite some injury concerns, the Astros extended Lance McCullers Jr. after a 2020 season where he had a 3.93 ERA. At that point in his career, he had a 3.70 ERA overall. McCullers Jr. signed for 5 years, $85 million.
The next example to look at was another pitcher who a team traded for and then signed to an extension. In 2021, the Blue Jays traded for Jose Berrios and he finished the 2021 season with a 3.52 ERA and was 9th in Cy Young voting. Following the season, they signed Berrios to a 7 year, $131 million extension.
Sandy Alcantara broke onto the scene in 2019 making an All-Star team in his first full big league season. In 2021, the right-hander posted a 3.19 ERA in 205.2 innings at just 25-years-old. Alcantara signed a very team friendly extension at 5 years, $56 million. He won the NL Cy Young the following season.
The last extension example we will look at is Stephen Strasburg with the Nationals. Following the 2015 season, where Strasburg posted a 3.46 ERA, the Nationals locked up their ace for years. At that time, his career ERA was sitting at 3.09 and he was seen as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He signed a 7 year, $175 million extension.
Hunter Brown currently has three years of arbitration left before he hits free agency. Any extension would obviously buy out those three years, and then hopefully keep him around for another 2-3 years after that. Logan Gilbert last year got $7.625 million in his second year of arbitration, at 3+ years of service, after getting $4.05 million the year before. George Kirby in his first year of arbitration got $4.3 million. Mackenzie Gore in his first year got $2.89 million.
So just for some projections, let’s say Brown would get the following numbers in arbitration over the next three years:
2026: $4 million
2027: $9 million
2028: $14 million
Those three years would be worth about $27 million. If Brown continues to pitch like he has so far this season, I think it’s fair to think he could get a deal close to Corbin Burnes deal with Arizona this off-season, which was 6 years, $210 million for $35 million a year.
So buying out the three years of arbitration at, let’s just estimate high, $30 million and then paying him $35 million for his first two years of free agency… the Astros and Brown could be looking at a contract extension at 5 years, $100 million. This would put him above McCullers, Webb and Strider. But behind Musgrove and Berrios, in terms of extensions.
The Astros could push this number to 5 years, $110 million or maybe try and get a 6th year and go 6 years, $140 million.
These deals may seem high, but given what we have seen from Brown over the last year, he deserves to sign an extension that would put him towards the top of the market in his free agent years. But we should also remember that as each year passes, the extension will end up costing more (assuming good performance) due to his arbitration years being used already. He could be entering free agency at 32 or 33 years old, an age where pitchers are still getting very lucrative deals. This would give Brown some guaranteed money right now and still set him up for another deal down the line. Would you sign up for a deal like this for Hunter Brown?
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