The Houston Astros‘ 2024 season saw some struggles, starting with a challenging 12-24 record in their first 36 games. The team was hit hard by injuries, notably with Kyle Tucker sidelined and Cristian Javier out for the season. However, they managed to rebound, finishing the year 76-49 over the next 125 games. The pitching staff really stepped up which bodes well for 2025, but there’s also reasons to be optimistic about the Astros’ offense.
This last offseason hasn’t really gone as many might have expected. The Astros traded one of their best players in Kyle Tucker and Astros legend Alex Bregman ended up signing with the Boston Red Sox. But to truly understand the moves, you have to look a little deeper into them.
Losing a player the caliber of Kyle Tucker is never easy, but the Astros got back a trade package including a good starting position player under team control for three seasons (Paredes), a pitcher who might be the fifth starter this season (Wesneski) and a highly regarded top prospect (Cam Smith). This was all for one year of Tucker as he is a free agent following the 2025 season.
Isaac Paredes – Paredes put together a really good 2023 where he hit .250 with 31 home runs, 98 runs batted in and a 130 OPS+. This was good for 4.2 WAR. In 2024, he started the year great batting .245 with 16 home runs and a 127 OPS+ in the first 101 games. He was at 2.4 WAR at the trade deadline. The Astros were rumored to be in on him but Paredes was traded to Chicago. He struggled following the trade hitting just .225 with 3 home runs as he had trouble in Wrigley Field.
Following the trade to Houston a few months ago, there was reason to expect his numbers could improve in 2025. Paredes has the second highest flyball rate in 2024, meaning he put the ball in the air a lot. If he played his games in Daikin Park in 2024, he would have ended up with 26 home runs. Fangraphs, who do a great job with projections, project Paredes for 25 home runs, a 127 wRC+ and 3.9 WAR. For comparison, Bregman is projected for 24 home runs, a 115 wRC+ and 3.6 WAR. So… according to Fangraphs, the Astros made a projected improvement at third base.
The Astros also made a splash in free agency at a position of extreme need.
Christian Walker – Walker, who played the previous eight seasons in Arizona, signed with the Astros on a 3 year, $60 million deal this offseason. Walker is coming off of three straight Gold Gloves and had 95 home runs and a 123 OPS+ over the last three seasons. Those seasons were good for 11.4 WAR. Fangraphs has Walker projected for 31 home runs, a 120 wRC+ and 3.2 WAR.
There are some signs from 2024 that bode well for Walker in 2025. In 2024, he had an average exit velocity of 91.3 MPH and a 13.3% barrel rate, which is the highest he posted in a full season for his career. He also posted a 48.0% hard hit rate, his highest since 2020. For comparison, Yordan Alvarez had an average exit velocity of 93.1 MPH, a 14.5% barrel rate and a 49.7% hard hit rate in 2024.
In 2024, the Astros first basemen combined for -1.9 WAR and a 80 wRC+. So Christian Walker is projected to be 40% better hitter and to be worth 5.1 more wins above replacement than the 2024 first base production for the Astros. That is a huge upgrade for 2025.
And of course, the Astros are returning some really good players too.
Yordan Alvarez – Not much needs to be said about this guy. He has been a perennial MVP candidate since coming into the league. In 2024, he hit .308 with 35 home runs and a 172 OPS+. He has the second highest wRC+ in baseball since 2022. He is projected for a 171 wRC+ in 2025. Just an elite hitter.
Jose Altuve – Like Yordan, there isn’t much that needs to be said about Altuve. He has been a constant producer in his career and despite having a “down” year offensively he still hit .295 with 20 home runs, 22 stolen bases and a 126 OPS+. His average exit velocity in 2024 was the best he’s had since 2021. Fangraphs still has him projected for 21 home runs and a 120 wRC+. Second base or left field, Altuve should continue to produce offensively.
Yainer Diaz – After a breakout year in 2023 where he hit 23 home runs and had a 128 OPS+, Yainer went into a little bit of a sophomore slump in 2024 early in the season including a rough May where he had a .472 OPS. However, from June 1st to the end of the season, Yainer went on a tear hitting .324 with 19 doubles, 13 home runs, 61 runs batted in and a 135 wRC+ in 96 games. The 135 wRC+ was easily the highest of any catcher over that stretch with Cal Raleigh second with a 125 wRC+.
Just take away his rough month of May, and Yainer hit .316 with 25 doubles, 19 home runs and 74 runs batted in over 123 games. Yainer is an elite level offensive catcher. If we see more of what he did over the last 4 months of the season, the Astros will be fine behind the plate.
Jeremy Peña – Peña completed his third full major league season in 2024 and finished hitting .266 with 15 home runs, 70 runs batted in, 20 stolen bases and a 100 OPS+. He rated above average defensively again and has now compiled 12.9 WAR in his first three years. In 2024, Peña posted a career high in average exit velocity (88.2 MPH) and HardHit% (38.8%). He’s projected for 18 home runs, a 103 wRC+ and 3.4 WAR according to Fangraphs.
The infield is in a good spot. All five of the infielders are projected to be above average offensively. The true question for 2025 will be the outfield…
Chas McCormick – McCormick had a solid 2022 season before breaking out in 2023 when he hit .273 with 22 home runs, 70 runs batted in and 19 stolen bases, compiling 3.6 WAR. In 2024, McCormick got off to a really rough start in April before missing about 20 games due to a back injury. He came back in May and the struggles continued. He was eventually optioned to Sugar Land in August for a few games before coming back up in September, where he finally showed some signs of life hitting .391 over 7 games. Unfortunately, he fractured his hand after running into a wall ending his season.
So the question comes down to what McCormick will we see in 2025? He posted a 117 OPS+ in 342 games through his first season with a career best in 2023. Then had a disastrous 2024 season. If he gets back anywhere close to 2023 version, the Astros will gladly take it. Fangraphs has him projected at 15 home runs and a 103 wRC+, which would be slightly above league average. I think we see a McCormick closer to his first 342 games, than we do to his rough 94 games in 2024.
Jake Meyers – Meyers is in a unique situation. If he was on the 2017-2019 Astros, his offensive production as an elite defender in center field would be just fine. It’s basically what we saw from Jake Marisnick. Marisnick had a 85 OPS+ in his time in Houston, Meyers currently has a 87 OPS+ during his time in Houston. Meyers has shown some great offense at times including May 2024 when he had a .924 OPS. I don’t think anyone expects that, but the hope is he can be league average.
In 2024, Meyers did have some advanced stats that looked better. He posted an average exit velocity of 88.2 MPH and 6.8% barrel rate, which was higher than he had in 2022 and 2023. His expected numbers for 2024 were better than the actual production on the field. Fangraphs has him projected for a 97 wRC+ with 11 home runs. With his defense, that production would be fine in the Astros lineup.
Ben Gamel – The Astros just recently signed Gamel to a deal for 2025. Gamel has been around a while but was solid in his short stint in Houston last year posting a 115 OPS+. For his career, he has a 96 OPS+, so just below league average. Out of the outfielders listed here, he actually has the best Fangraphs projections. Fangraphs has him projected at a 104 wRC+. That will definitely work in a part time role for him.
Potential prospects who might get some run in 2025…
Jacob Melton – Melton was the Astros top prospect before the acquisition of Cam Smith. While he had some struggles in 2024, he still showed why he was a second round pick connecting on 15 home runs and 30 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A. Melton is a good athlete and solid defender, but his calling card will be offense. He produces huge exit velocities and for him, it’s just a matter of getting the ball squared up. He had a max EV of 113.6 MPH in Triple-A last season, and averaged 88.2 MPH. He has been reassigned to minor league camp after dealing with a back injury but hopefully he will be healthy soon.
The Astros don’t have any other top outfield prospects in Triple-A, though there are some guys who might make a position change in 2025.
Zach Dezenzo – Dezenzo came up as an infield prospect, but the Astros have started to use him in the outfield some. He played three games in left field in Triple-A, and then this winter played 8 games in left field over in Puerto Rico. Like Melton, Dezenzo produces some really good exit velocities. He was really good in Triple-A last year, hitting .333 with a .998 OPS in 25 games. He had an average exit velocity of 90.3 MPH and a hard hit rate of 51.4%. He got a call up and had a 84 wRC+ with 2 home runs in 65 plate appearances. This Spring Training is also going to be a big one for him, because he if can handle the outfield and he hits the ball well, he might be able to grab a starting spot.
Shay Whitcomb – Whitcomb also came up as an infield prospect but the Astros started using him in the outfield in Triple-A in 2024. He played 10 games in left field and one game in right field towards the end of the season. Offensively, Whitcomb showed massive improvement. After leading all of minor league baseball in homers in 2023 (35 HR), he followed that up with 25 home runs in 2024 but also increased his walk rate and decreased his strikeout rate. He has 20 HR/20 SB potential at the big league level, it will be just finding him a potential spot in the field.
As highlighted, the Astros infield is in a good spot. Yes, there is the loss of Bregman, but Paredes should be able to step in and give them equivalent or even better offensive production. Altuve, Alvarez and Diaz will produce. Walker is going to be a huge upgrade at first base. The question will be the outfield, but if they can get league average production from McCormick and Meyers, one prospect stepping up (Melton, Dezenzo) will help the offense take off and help the Astros secure another AL West title.
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